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December 14 2011

Question:
Should I start Felix Jones,Roy Helu or Ahmad Bradshaw? I have two others started Chris Johnson and Reggie Bush and have room for one more.Also with Jennings going down who should I start at WR Santana Moss,Jeremy Maclin,Demarius Thomas or Manningham?

Answer:
Chad, Thanks for visiting Fantasy Roids and sending in your questions for a second opinion.

First off, I agree with you that you should keep CJ and Bush in your starting lineup. For the third spot, you've got to go with Helu. Bradshaw and Jones and talented and coming back into good situations, but they're also coming off of injuries and aren't running as hard or as with many carries as Helu. You can't argue with 3 straight 100+ rushing games with receiving and TD potential.

WR is a bit trickier. Maclin is talented, but who knows how his hamstring is feeling. Plus they're playing against the Jets and the Eagles shouldn't risk their #1 receiver in 2012 for essentially a pointless game. Mario's knee is no good either. Don't expect him to be very involved. He will get much less snaps than Nicks and Cruz. You know what you're getting with Santana Moss which is nice and dependable. He even almost had a TD catch at the end of last week's game, but Thomas against the Patriot's horrible secondary is too tempting for me to pass up on. New England ranks dead last in fantasy points given up to WRs this year and in Thomas' last 2 games he's racked up 222 yards and 3 TDs! He even let a fourth TD slip through his fingers last week. That is the downside though; he's young and prone to mistakes (especially drops) but he's big and in a very beneficial situation right now. Take the risk, start Thomas and take the championship while you're at it! I would much rather start him and live with a dud performance than bench him and watch him rip the Patriots for a career day.

Hope this was able to help and once again, best of luck.

-Patty "the greek" and the Fantasy Roids staff.

December 14 2011

Question:
Ok actually two questions. First of all, this week I have Tolbert and Jacobs, and only need to start one of them, who should it be for the first round of the playoffs. Next, I have Rodgers and assuming the Pack win, they could rest him... For the Superbowl, should I start Rodgers risking him not playing, or go with Tebow who I have on my bench.... Tough... I know...

Answer:
Philip,

Thanks for visiting Fantasy Roids and sending in your questions. You're close to winning the whole thing, so let's make the most of this!

Tolbert has turned into not much more than a TD vulture and while TDs are good, the odds of getting one against the Ravens isn't too attractive. Jacobs is in line for a decent workload. Even though Bradshaw is the more talented player, he's still working his way back into the rotation.

As for the QB situation, keep Rodgers in your lineup! I only think he will sit on the bench if its late in games and the win is already in hand, 3 quarters of Rodgers is better than 4 quarters of Tebow. All bets are on for the Packers to try to go undefeated. If they do bench Rodgers for Week 17, you will hear about it in the week leading up to it and you can switch him out at that point.

Hope this helps and best of luck!

-Patty "the greek" Venieris and the Fantasy Roids Staff.

November 11 2011

Question:
I've been offered Andre Johnson and Rashard Mendenhall for Fred Jackson. Should I accept?

Answer:
When first considering this trade, my initial response was to accept. The quick reasoning was that Andre Johnson and Rashard Mendenhall are both top tier talent and are better in the long term for your team than Fred Jackson.

But after some consideration and deliberation, there is some significant downside here. First, both Mendenhall and Johnson have yet to have their byes while Jackson has. That means that you are essentially trading for two extra bye weeks. In Week 11, your starting lineup will be without Fred Jackson, Andre Johnson AND Rashard Mendenhall if you make this deal. Your lineup will be downgraded this Week also with the Steelers playing the Ravens (instead of Jackson vs the Jets who actually allowing the 5th most Fantasy Points to Rbs) and Andre Johnson still unsure to play. And your lineup will also be severely hampered Week 11 as already mentioned. This could possibly cost you two, or even three losses in the next three weeks. That's kind of scary.

And to this point, I have yet to even speak about the talent and performance levels of the players in question. Right now, according to FantasyRoids.com's Fantasy Relevancy Score, Fred Jackson is the BEST overall player as well as in the Top 10 for overall Fantasy Points scored. At this point, there is no reason to see Jackson take a downturn either. He's is one of the few true every down backs without a defined backup making his value even higher because he is not replaceable in the Bills Offense.

Andre Johnson was playing at a high level for the first 3 games of the season but a hamstring injury has caused him to miss the last four games. And those first 3 games were when Arian Foster was out, which gave more of a role to Johnson. And as we know, hamstring injuries tend to linger even after a player returns to action.

In this trade, the person that I am the most worried about is Rashard Mendenhall. In 8 games this year, Mendenhall has scored more than 10 points just twice and one of those came when he was returning from injury and expectations were very low. Last year through 8 games, Mendenhall had 603 yards rushing, this year just 421. Also last year, the Steelers threw for 225 yards per game versus 273 this year. We can easily see that the Steelers are running less and throwing more which doesn't bode well for Mendenhall's long term prospects.

All in all, this trade offer initially seems too good to be true and after some analysis, it is. In any trade the manager that gets the best player is usually the winner and in this case, you are trading away the best player. I would suggest that you do NOT make this deal and stick with your amazing Running Back tandem of Fred Jackson and Adrian Peterson.

I hope this advice helps and that going forward you will continue to read and visit FantasyRoids.com for all you analysis, insights and anabolics!

-Brian Bermingham and the FantasyRoids.com Staff

October 29 2011

Question:
Name: Nicholas McKelvey

Question: Couple of questions. In order, who will be more productive to finish off the year; VJax, Fitz and Steve Smith? Question 2, same question except with CJ0K, Mendenhall and MJD? I'm in a PPR league.

Answer:

Nicholas,

Thanks for checking out the site. If I had to rank those players in terms of production for the rest of the season I would go Fitz, Smith, then VJax. Fitz gets the slight nod over Smith in PPR with his consistent play. Smith will definitely have some big games as we have seen but he will also have some duds and while Cam has been exceptional for a rookie, he is still a rookie. As the season wears on and coaches get tape on him, we will probably see a drop off in production. VJax simply needs better play out of Rivers and the rest of the Chargers before his numbers will go up and that does not look like it will be happening any time soon. For the RBs: MJD, Mendenhall, then CJ0K. MJD is easily having the best year out of the three and will continue to do so. Despite the Jags impotent offense, ranked 32, he is still averaging over 100 total yards per game. Mendenhall has been up and down and will continue to be as the Steelers have offensive line woes. CJ0K, as you aptly named, has been a huge disappointment this year. The only silver lining is the 4 receptions a game he has been averaging, but with only 1 TD and 2.9 rush yards per attempt, it's not very promising.

-Timbo Slice and the Fantasy Roids staff

August 10 2011
Question:

14 team league.. How does this change my priorites vs. a 10 and 12 team draft? Do I go QB earlier than I normally would

-Michael Chico

Answer:

The biggest difference in a 14-Team Draft versus a 10-Team is the gap differential between picks. In a 10-Team Draft, the largest gap between picks will be 18 if you selected first or tenth; in a 14-Team it can be as long as 26. This gap creates variations in positional rankings and scarcity as well as positional runs during drafts.

The most important change to note will be that Quarterbacks have a higher draft day value. Each team is required to start a QB every week meaning that 14 have to be in lineups and at least another 14 as backups. Therefore at least 28 should be drafted in your league with as many as 36 or more possible. To compare, in a 10-Team league 20 will be the most you would see. So in a year where there are only six elite QB (Vick, Rodgers, Brady, Brees, Rivers, Manning) it becomes apparent that these players will be drafted higher than in other leagues.

I would expect that these six QB will all be selected by the end of the 2nd round (28 picks in) with most taken between picks 6-18. If you are towards the end of the first round then feel free to take one if you desire because with QB going early, WR and RB will be pushed down and still available in rounds 2, 3 & 4.

Also, in deeper leagues there are going to be positional runs that you may miss out on. For example, Tight Ends will undoubtedly be drafted in a bunch in one of the middle rounds. Don't worry about this as there is little you can do to counter it. Instead focus on drafting the best possible player with every selection. This will ensure that your starting lineup is the best it can be regardless of positional strength.

- Brian Bermingham and the Fantasy Roids Team

June 2011
Question:

Hey guys I have a question for you regarding my dynasty league. I went into last season with Matt Ryan as my QB and I draft Tim Tebow as my backup and QB of the future. During the season I was lucky enough to pickup Michael Vick but now I am forced to decide which ones to keep long term as the contract on Vick and Ryan are up in my league. Which QB is going to have the most long term value and how much do you expect Vick and Tebow to be worth in an auction draft next year? Thanks.

-KingKongDong

Answer:

Thanks for the question! You sure have quite the decision to make for the future of your team. So I’m going to hit you with a recap and future forecast for both Mike Vick and Tim Tebow and hopefully point you in the right direction.

Mike Vick:
In 2010 Mike Vick was 2nd in standard league scoring with 300 total fantasy points in just 10 starts and 4 games missed. Per start, Vick averaged nearly 30 points making him the clear number 1 in points per start (PPS). The best thing about Vick was that even in his lowest scoring game of the season (minus Week 5 against WAS when he was injured early) he still put up 19 Fantasy Points. For the season the reformed QB recorded over 3,000 yards passing, more than 650 yards rushing and 30 total TDs with just 9 turnovers. Mammoth numbers to say the least.

Predictions for 2011 and beyond are surprisingly mixed for Vick though. All signs are pointing towards Vick resigning or being Franchised Tagged in Philadelphia meaning that he will again be working with Andy Reid and great weapons in Jeremy Maclin, DeSean Jackson, Brent Celek and LeSean McCoy. The offensive will be dynamic but in the future as in the 2010 season, opposing teams found ways to put pressure on Vick and undoubtedly there will be more of this. Also, Vick missed nearly 5 full games due to injury as he battled Rib, Chest, Thigh and Ankle problems that were a result of his style of play which lends itself to taking some tough hits. Good news is that Mike will turn 31 in June but he is a young 31 with his 2 years "away" from the game and has potentially 3 great seasons left with an additional 2 years of good-to-solid play. Quarterbacks tend to lose their effectiveness around the age of 35 so best c-09ase you are looking at 4 years of Vick being Vick.

Tim Tebow:
As a rookie in 2010, Tebow saw little action until Week 15 when the Broncos were out of contention and were just playing out the regular season. In his 3 starts however, Tebow posted Fantasy performances of 22, 22 and 27 fantasy points. Very good numbers and he did it in a style similar to Michael Vick (with his arm AND with his legs). For the season, Tebow total about 900 yards, 11 TDs and 3 turnovers.

2011 & Beyond
Broncos new head Coach John Fox is a self proclaimed Tim Tebow fan and will likely give him the starting job at some point in 2011. Tebow has solid emerging weapons in Denver with Knowshon Moreno, Demaryius Thomas and Brandon Lloyd at the skill positions and an offense that will stay the same from his rookie year to his sophomore despite the coaching change. As far as age goes, Tebow will be 24 in August and has at least 8+ seasons in which he can perform at a high level. Just looking at age, Tebow has more upside than Vick.

Who to sign?
If I was looking to sign just a short term contract, I would go after Vick. He was the 2nd best fantasy scorer last year despite missing 5 and one-half games making him a “Medium Risk-High Reward” player. This will keep your options open and won’t lock you into Vick as your franchise once he gets past his prime.

However for 2011, Tim Tebow is a High Risk-High Reward player. At this point it’s very hard to tell if Tebow will be the starter Week 1 but if I had to guess I would think he will NOT. Tebow still needs to develop his passing skills but worst case he should be a starter by 2012. The upside comes from the production that Tebow showed as a starter in 2010. If he can play at his pace of nearly 24 FP per game, he would score over 375 points giving him the highest single season total since Tom Brady threw 50 TDs in 2006.

Obviously, if you can keep both do it, but don’t sign Vick for more than 3 seasons, especially if he comes at a high price. My guess is that Vick will be among the top value players for auction leagues coming in at a price north of $45-50 and possibly $63-65 at the highest of highs. I would assume Tebow will cost something like $6-8 as a back up and higher if there are signs he may eventually become the Broncos starter ($12-18).

I hope this information helps but make sure you keep an eye on the developments over the summer and as we get closer to the 2011 season. With the threat of a Lockout and possibly missed OTAs and Minicamps, the development of Tebow may be stunted and Vick may not have a team or a contract at all. So check back with Fantasy Roids for all the best insight and analysis!

- Brian Bermingham and the Fantasy Roids Team

From: Kevin Crumrine

12 team, 2 QB, 3 WR, 2 RB league. Don't know draft position yet, do you draft QB's earlier than usual to ensure you get one of the top guys?

Answer:
Yes Kevin, you are correct for assuming that you should draft QB's earlier than usual in a 2 QB league. Especially in a 12 team 2 QB league. Most commonly, 2 QB leagues have 10 or less teams.

In a 12 team league approximately 36 QBs will be drafted. (2 starters + 1 bench) * 12 teams = 36.

Note the myFantasyRoids QB Leaderboards. Once you go past the top 24 QB's (your starters) it’s very slim pickings in tier 6.

I wouldn’t use my first round draft pick on a QB if I had a top 4 pick (AP, CJ, MoJo, RR) as I value these 4 as elite talents who’s fantasy production won’t easily be matched by other RB’s , but if I had a mid to late first round pick, I would strongly consider drafting a QB in the first round if you’re not very high on other late first round options such as Steven Jackson, Rashard Mendenhall, etc.

In a 2 QB league, the majority of your points will come from QB’s and you need consistent fantasy scorers. My advice is to make sure you lock up a QB from the top 2 tiers and one more from tiers 3 or 4. In order to do so, you will most likely need to spend 2 of your first 5 draft picks on QBs.

If you find yourself in a position where QBs are going faster than expected and you missed the opportunity to draft the players you wanted, here are some underrated QBs that could easily outperform expectations this year:

-Josh Freeman
-Jay Cutler
-Chad Henne
-Vince Young
-Matt Hasselbeck

Thank you for asking the experts at myFantasyRoids.com

-Patty the Greek and the Fantasy Roids staff

From: Christ Puncher

I am trying to get ready for my yearly 14 team league $200 auction draft and I need some strategy advice. Last year I went big 3 QB,RB,WR ( Manning, Grant/Westbrook, Fitzgerald/Jennings). I thought I did ok but obv. blew my load early and left little room for depth. This year seems much more deep value wise and I am thinking about letting everyone else jump in early while I drive up prices and wait for the value in the middle of the draft. Guys like Forte, A. Foster, Benson, Knox, Nicks, Crabtree, and Colston. I was really thinking about going Cutler and Roethlisberger for a cheap QB and then just really going for depth. Is this a good bet this year or should I be looking to grab Manning, Rice, Moss this year?

Answer:
Christ, As you’ve noticed last year, paying for top tier talent in QB, RB and WR requires too much of your bankroll and will leave you with a shallow bench. Rather than drafting Cutler instead of Manning, I would eye a QB in between the two, such as Brady, Romo or Rivers.

In a 14 team league with $2,800 available, players will be going for higher prices than usual and the top 3 QBs will cost a ridiculous amount of money. Use the myFantasyRoids adjustable auction cheat sheet to get accustom to player values. Expect Rodgers, Brees and Manning to go for anywhere from $50-60. Try to get a deal and land Brady, Romo, Rivers or Kolb for below market value.

This will allow you to spend some more money on a 1st or 2nd tier RB. Don’t make the mistake of waiting too long and just picking up value in the middle of the draft, or you will miss your opportunity to buy quality talent and end up with a whole lot of money and no one to spend it on.

Good idea to drive up prices early, but don’t push it too much or you might end up paying for a player at a price that you’re not comfortable with. Nominate top tier QBs early, sit back and watch the feeding frenzy.

In conclusion, don’t overcompensate for last year’s mistakes. Find a balance between the two. Don’t be afraid to pay the price for a stud RB and look for value throughout the rest of the draft. Looking for some more names that could provide great upside at a low price? Check out Claussen’s sleepers article.

-Patty the Greek and the Fantasy Roids staff